The Wide World of Dirt

It’s a new year and a new day.

36 teams have a place in the field every week while a slew of non-chartered teams — including some familiar faces — looking to fight their ways into the race each week.

There are four new tracks on the schedule: Circuit of the Americas, Road America, Nashville, and the Indianapolis Road Course, all ready to embrace the mayhem of the Cup Series.

But enough about that, let’s get to my predictions for the year. It’s what you came here for.

New Teams

The new star of the show is the #23 DoorDash Toyota Camry piloted by Bubba Wallace. The three-year veteran enters the season racing for the newly-formed 23XI Racing co-owned by Cup Series contender Denny Hamlin and 6-time NBA champion and GOAT Michael Jordan.

Though Bubba set his goal earlier this week that he expects to win two races this year, my expectations are that the team will make the playoffs this year.

I know that the recent alliance with Leavine Family Racing doesn’t inspire much confidence in people, but I think Bubba learned a lot over the last few years in terms of managing equipment and aggression.

I also think 23XI has better base resources than LFR with Michael bankrolling the team, so 23XI has a better chance of being more like Furniture Row Racing than people think.

Next up is the #99 Commscope Chevy Camaro driven by Daniel Suarez. Owned by a group that includes former NASCAR driver Justin Marks and rapper Pitbull, Team Trackhouse hits the circuit with an alliance with RCR, a move that will undoubtedly pay dividends.

I expect Trackhouse to be a top-15 contender every week. I think we’ll see them score 12 top-10s, 3 top-5s, and they’ll finish between 18th and 22nd in points. They could have things fall their way and get a win, but I don’t expect that will happen.

Live Fast Racing joins the Cup Series as Matt Tifft and BJ McLeod come together to start their joint effort, but I just expect them to plug along, log laps, and keep their nose clean.

*I don’t feel the need to say that Chase Brisoce will win Rookie of the Year. He should win it.

Stonks

Kyle Busch is pissed off after being doubted by his former crew chief Adam Stevens, who “gave up on [him]” according to the two-time champion.

I suspect Kyle will be back in top form this season with new crew chief Ben Beshore on top of the M&M pitbox, mostly out of spite. It’s Kyle. I wouldn’t want it any other way.

My prediction is that he’ll win seven races this year, a season-high, and have a legitimate shot at a championship when the Series comes to Phoenix in November.

In terms of drivers looking to improve from last season, Tyler Reddick will be a contender in more races this season, and I have him winning the race at Homestead and the second Richmond race in the playoffs. He could sneak his way into the Round of 8.

My main reasoning behind Reddick’s improvement is the new engine alliance between Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing. Reddick put up several good runs last year with lesser engines, so I suspect with increased engine power, he will be more of a threat.

Not Stonks

It’s been well-documented that I don’t have much faith in William Byron, and that continues into 2021. I just don’t think he’s got what it takes to be a contender, and for a driver taking up a seat at HMS, that’s just not going to cut it.

Having said that, I don’t foresee him making the playoffs this year because drivers who were in lesser equipment last season (Wallace, Bell, Suarez, Reddick, and even Austin Dillon) will be more competitive.

To quote the great Randy Savage, the cream rises to the top. Byron is an ice cube.

Another driver who will struggle this year is Cole Custer, a guy who I have also never been very high on. His win at Kentucky was impressive last season, but it was extremely circumstantial.

He capitalized on those circumstances, and that’s awesome. This year though, I think he will continue to struggle like he did in his rookie season.

Custer doesn’t have a particular track that he’s good at, something I am concerned about with new Ganassi driver Ross Chastain as well. As a result, I think he’ll struggle and miss the playoffs.

Playoffs

Eliminated: Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman.

I don’t see Ganassi being very competitive this season in general with a third driver in 10 months joining the team, so Kurt will be bounced by lack of points and good runs in the playoffs.

MTJ showed last season that he’s not getting the job done anymore, and I don’t see that trend changing. I think he will be the fourth Gibbs car, maybe even the fifth depending on how good the 23XI car will be. Those racetracks aren’t great for Truex either.

Blaney will encounter the same issues as last year in the playoffs: getting past that first round. He just isn’t a great short track driver. It is what it is. He will need misfortune from others to move past Darlington, Richmond, and Bristol.

Bowman, I don’t really know. I just think with the equipment of others being improved, Bowman will sink to the middle. I don’t think he will be able to earn a lot of points during the season for the playoffs, but I could be wrong. I just don’t see that first round working out for him.

Round of 12

Eliminated: Logano, Bell, Wallace, Almirola

Joey, Joey, Joey. Though I like you, I think you’ll have a down year like the rest of Penske. I see you winning a few stages and one race this season, but I don’t think you’ll survive this round because of some superspeedway stupidity either of your doing or someone else.

Bubba is gonna get wadded up in someone else’s mess at Talladega and be in a must-win situation at the Roval where, let’s be honest, isn’t gonna happen. A strong first year for 23XI.

Christopher Bell will benefit from being in a more competitive car, but I don’t think it takes him much further than the Round of 12, mainly because Kyle and Denny will eat up some of his stage win and race win opportunities.

Aric is gonna have a solid season as usual, but I don’t foresee him getting past this round unless he wins the Talladega sweepstakes. Kevin Harvick will still cast a large shadow over his teammates at the end of the day, and Almirola will lose points because of it.

Round of 8

Eliminated: Elliott, DiBenedetto, Larson, Reddick

The defending champ will have a fine season, matching his five wins from last season. He’ll pick up two crown jewels at the World 600 and the Southern 500, but I see him falling short at Martinsville because he won’t have enough points.

As great as Elliott was last year, his runs at Texas and Kansas prior to Martinsville weren’t inspiring. With the pack adding more competitive cars this year, Chase is gonna have to fight off Harvick, Hamlin, Busch, and Keselowski, and I don’t think that’ll happen this year.

Matt will sneak his way this far, much like Bowman and Kurt Busch did last year. He’s gonna be solid all year, and while I’m not sure he wins a race this year, I think the tracks in the playoffs benefit his style enough that he can make a deep playoff run.

But you have to win a race to make it to the championship four (unless you’re Ryan Newman, I guess), and I don’t think Matt wins at any of the final three races.

Kyle Larson will have a similar year to his 2019 season where he just puts together a solid campaign and finishes races. I don’t think he wins Bristol dirt, but I think he wins at Dover in the car Johnson got two top-10s in 2020.

Tyler Reddick isn’t a lock to make the Round of 8, but if he improves like I think he will, I think it’s very possible. I don’t think he’ll have amassed the points necessary for him to make it to the Championship 4, but I think he’ll go out swinging and gain a bunch of fans.

Championship 4: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick

Denny is not gonna slow down this season. He will continue to win, and a win at Texas (his third of the season) will punch his third straight ticket to the championship race.

While he will win less this year, I think he will be a menace at grabbing stage victories and running up towards the front all season. He’ll keep his nose clean and strike when the time is right. Denny has upped his mental game, and it’ll show this year.

KFB will strike back this year, and with all the points he will have amassed being the regular season champion, he will be the only person to point his way into the Championship Round.

I suspect his aggression will get the best of him at some point this season and put him in a less than ideal situation, but I trust that he will overcome that conflict and thrive.

Brad Keselowski is going to nickel and dime his way into the Round of 8. He is going to have a sneaky good season like last year and cruise into the playoffs.

He will be the best of the Penske bunch, and with his teammates getting eliminated before the Round of 8, all of the Penske resources will be poured into the #2 car, leading to a berth at Phoenix via a win at Martinsville.

The Champion: Kevin Harvick

Yes, I’m a lifelong Harvick fan, and I know this is going to read off as me just picking him because he’s my favorite driver. But, hear me out.

I don’t think Kevin has been this pissed off over something since leaving RCR in 2013, and I think that’s a good thing.

He was the most dominant driver all season in 2020, and if it wasn’t for racing in the rain at Texas, I think we would be having a much different conversation in regards to how his 2020 season ended at Martinsville.

I don’t think he will win as many races as last year, but I think he wins the first race at Phoenix, sweeps Atlanta, and wins the first race at Darlington going into the playoffs.

He survives the first two rounds without winning, but he gets his revenge in Kansas by winning the race and punching his ticket for Phoenix.

Having won there in the spring and regaining his confidence at the track, he will win the championship after passing KFB during pit stops.