With the San Francisco 49ers going undefeated through three games with unheralded rookie Brock Purdy leading the charge, many are wondering the fates of their other QBs.
I’m not going to focus too much on Jimmy Garoppolo because he’s an established, finished product.
Teams won’t exactly be jumping at the chance to snag Garoppolo as he hits the free agent market though his performance as the replacement starter might turn some heads.
Instead I’d like to focus on the 3rd overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft: Trey Lance.
The 19-year-old lit the FCS on fire in 2019, leading North Dakota State to an undefeated season, ending in a title win over James Madison and winning MVP.
Lance only appeared in one game in 2020, a romp over Central Arkansas in October where the Minnesota native scored four touchdowns on the day.
Not wasting any time, the redshirt sophomore gunslinger announced he’d leave the school, opting into the 2021 NFL Draft.
His inclusion in the 2021 draft class puzzled and provoked many analysts, and his lack of tape came as more of a benefit than a detriment.
While tearing up the FCS ranks at only 19, Lance’s prototypical size and elusive running style made him an easy comparison to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Lance’s immense upside caused Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to move up for the 2019 Walter Payton Award winner.
Lance was brought in as a developmental prospect to learn the offense and poise from veteran starter Garoppolo.
Now two years into his career, Lance has minimal tape and remains a raw prospect, showing flashes of his potential and the inconsistency that his detractors projected.
In his rookie year against the Seahawks, Lance replaced an injured Garoppolo and dazzled in his stead, throwing two TDs and running for 41 yards in a loss.
The following game against the Cardinals accentuated his flaws, going 15/29 with an interception but making up for it with an 89-yard day on the ground in the loss.
His last big opportunity came in week 17 against Houston where Lance dazzled against a weak defense.
The freshman gunslinger completed 16 of 29 passes for 249 yards and 2 TDs, leading the Niners to a pivotal win in their playoff push.
Shanahan saw enough in his limited playtime and the 2022 offseason to name Lance the starter for his sophomore campaign.
A deluge in Chicago on opening day didn’t give Lance the best opportunity to exhibit his growth, but early in the next game against Seattle, his season came to an end.
A devastating ankle injury required surgery, leaving Lance on the mend and Garoppolo stepping into his familiar role as starter.
Garoppolo’s play improved throughout 2022, showing he could protect the ball better and harkening back to the efficient game manager playstyle that led San Francisco to prosperity.
In week 13 against Miami, Garoppolo suffered a major injury of his own, breaking his foot and opening the door for 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy to take over.
Purdy has been nothing short of spectacular in his three-game stint.
Winning all three games, Purdy has thrown for over 200 yards and scored at least two total TDs in every game so far.
These weren’t wins against cream puffs either.
They stomped the 8-3 Dolphins, took the Buccaneers behind the woodshed, and ripped apart the division rival Seahawks in Seattle to clinch the NFC West.
Mr. Irrelevant is making serious noise in the QB room, and if he can guide the Niners on a deep playoff run, it’d be hard to not commit to that guy going forward.
This situation reminds me a lot of the RG3-Kirk Cousins QB controversy in Washington during the mid-2010s.
The mobile, blue-chip prospect that gets injured being supplanted by an unheralded backup picked much later in the draft.
With that said, I believe Purdy could take the Niners all the way to the Super Bowl if defenses can’t figure out a way to slow him down.
In the extreme case he takes them to the Super Bowl and wins, Shanahan will have no choice but to continue developing the Iowa State product.
Personally, I don’t think that’s gonna jive well with the #3 overall pick who was given the keys to the franchise before something out of his control saw them handed to someone else.
So, where could Trey Lance go next? Here are my top 3 landing spots.
Las Vegas Raiders
I would have to imagine John Lynch isn’t too interested in trading a QB within his conference, so what better place to take a gamble than Vegas?
The Raiders hold their first round picks in each of the next two drafts, and with Derek Carr on the roster, they don’t have to rush Lance into the starting role if they don’t feel he’s ready.
Personally, I would’ve liked Lance to sit for another year scouting Garoppolo, but Shanahan clearly saw something in the offseason and training camp that the rest of us didn’t get the opportunity to see.
Lance would also be surrounded by elite weapons in Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs, so he’d have an easy time passing with wider passing windows.
Two things that complicate this arrangement are the status of head coach Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr’s contract extension.
McDaniels’ tenure has been disappointing to say the least. Inheriting a team that made the playoffs last season, McDaniels and company haven’t been able to take this roster to similar heights, being eliminated from playoff contention in week 14.
Compounding McDaniels’ ineptitude has been Carr’s lack of poise in close games.
Signing a lofty contract extension in the offseason, Carr hasn’t been able to hold a lead all season, and the Raiders should have some questions about his ability to be the long-term answer in Sin City.
Simply put, the marriage between Lance and Vegas could be great, but the instability of their situation might not be ideal for a burgeoning field general.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stacked with weapons aplenty, Byron Leftwich’s offense has failed to launch this season after two seasons of excellence.
QB Tom Brady has struggled to get on the same page with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and with injuries on the line, the running game has been nonexistent.
Based on recent reports, I don’t believe Brady respects this coaching staff, and I don’t expect him to stay in Tampa Bay after the season.
Lance would be an immense upgrade over Tampa’s current slate of backups and would give them a young QB with a strong arm to build around for the future.
The Bucs have all their picks to exchange for Lance and giving this coaching staff a chance to develop a QB with Lance’s upside must be tempting to the front office to gauge this staff’s long-term staying power.
The one big hitch in this plan obviously lies in both teams being in the National Football Conference.
Would John Lynch be willing to hand Lance to a team already built to win? If the pot is sweet enough, I’m sure a deal could be made.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins enters the final year of his contract in 2023, and by the time the season begins, he will be 35-years-old.
The former Commander arrived in Minneapolis via free agency in 2018, and the results have been mixed.
Despite jumping onto a roster who made the NFC Championship the previous year, Cousins couldn’t lead the team back to the postseason.
His next three seasons include one playoff appearance and stellar counting numbers that lack substance as the Vikings entered 2022.
After two straight nine-loss campaigns, the Vikings fired head coach Frank Zimmer for Rams OC Kevin O’Connell.
O’Connell has revitalized the Vikings’ offense, but in some of the season’s biggest moments, Cousins has floundered.
With a year to develop behind Cousins, Lance could build chemistry with elite skill position players Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and TJ Hockenson.
Lance’s arrival would mean a return to his home state, being born and raised in Marshall, Minnesota.
The Vikings have the same problem as Tampa, and they sacrificed much of their 2023 draft capital to acquire Hockenson midseason, but if they want to find the heir to Cousins’ throne, they can find a deal for the NDSU standout.
Conclusion
Do I earnestly think the 49ers will trade Trey Lance? Of course not.
Brock Purdy has played very well, but he’s not setting the world on fire either. He’s working within the offense and finding the open man.
While that’s super important in the NFL today, Purdy’s arm strength still leaves much to be desired, and while he’s a scrappy runner, he’s not the quickest cat under center.
The Niners’ stellar defense will give him plenty of opportunities to capitalize on through the rest of the regular season and the postseason.
San Francisco has also collected an insane amount of talent at the skill positions with the likes of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey.
Like Natasha Bedingfield said, the rest is still unwritten on this 49ers season, so it’s anyone’s guess at what will happen next.
But, if they’re looking forward with Brock Purdy in mind, they should give Lance a chance to glimmer like gold elsewhere.
The Wide World of Dirt 
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