The Wide World of Dirt

If you were looking for entertainment and high-stakes action last weekend, you weren’t going to find it in the dusty foothills of Nevada.

William Byron got out front early in Stage 1 and swept the stages before a slow pit stop following Stage 2 got him planted behind teammate Kyle Larson.

Larson dominated Stage 3, looking primed to lock himself into the playoffs before Aric Almirola decided to ruin yet another race this season by bringing out a caution.

Byron’s crew delivered a blazing 2-tire stop that put him on the front row for the restart where he flew past Martin Truex Jr, to claim his 5th career win and first of 2023.

From one sandy scene to another, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series (minus Chase Elliott) roll into the Estrella Mountains to tackle the tricky Phoenix Raceway.

One notable change for this race will be that the sanctioning body has a new ruleset for shorter tracks and road courses, mandating a smaller 2in spoiler as well as reducing the amount of strakes on the rear diffuser.

The changes were announced in the offseason in an effort to reduce downforce (which also reduces dirty air) and promote tire wear, and I am cautiously optimistic as to how this will affect the product on-track.

Without further ado, here are my Friday 5 for Phoenix this weekend:

1. Kevin Harvick

Harvick has won here more than anyone in the Cup Series since the track’s inaugural event in fall 1988.

Harvick has led more laps at Phoenix Raceway than anyone, and he’s got the most top-5s and top-10s in the track’s history.

What I’m getting at is that the Phoenix Raceway record book probably has Kevin Harvick on its cover. No matter the configuration, time of day, or time of year, Kevin Harvick knows how to get the job done.

Even looking back to 2022, Harvick contended in the early stages of the spring and fall event and finished 6th and 5th respectively.

Harvick has already shown speed early this year albeit at much bigger tracks. If there’s one place the 4Ever campaign could be truly kicked off, it would be in Avondale, Arizona.

2. Ryan Blaney

As is the story for many tracks on the NASCAR schedule, Ryan Blaney just about has this track figured out. He’s led laps, won stages, and he’s even sat in the lead on a long run with less than 20 laps to go.

Yet, victory eludes him.

Had teammate Joey Logano not had such a powerhouse of a Ford Mustang last fall, Blaney could probably inhale the rubber burning off of Logano’s tires in the final run to the finish.

Kyle Petty said some dumbass bullshit earlier this week about Ryan, and if it were me, I think I’d make sure to jot that one down.!

Imagine that wonderful soundbite. Ryan Blaney’s in victory lane on the frontstretch giving his postrace interview. Ryan says something like, How’s that for a guy who can’t get it done?

We’ve already got “What the fuck’s Kyle Petty got to do with this?”, but I will never get enough of watching a Petty get dunked on, not even beyond the end of time.

If Ryan Blaney can turn the noise into fuel as all the greats have done before him, he can grow the driver he has the potential to be: a Cup Series champion.

3. Martin Truex Jr.

The winner of the 2021 spring race has seldom seen winner’s circle at any track since then, only tallying three more wins in 2021 before going winless last season.

Five weeks removed from the Clash, Truex exhibited pace and precision at the quarter-mile makeshift bullring that led to a win, but he was far from the only Toyota Camry TRD that was strong in Pasadena.

Truex’s performance alongside the speed shown by teammate Denny Hamlin and Toyota compatriot Bubba Wallace at the Coliseum give me confidence to say that the New Jersey native can make a statement this weekend.

Look out for the #19 to let champagne showers wash away their winless drought.

4. Daniel Suarez

A surprise to some, Suarez is currently sitting 4th in season points after three straight top-10 finishes to start the season, sharing the achievement with Alex Bowman.

Trackhouse’s pioneering driver has shown pace all season without being able to truly maximize it; a speeding penalty at Fontana and a mediocre final pit stop in Vegas took Suarez out of the hunt.

What’s been the most surprising has been Suarez’s recovery from those miscues.

The Mexican-born driver charged through the field after his penalty in California to finish 4th, and despite taking two tires, Suarez held off the cars with four tires to keep his top-10 streak alive.

Home to 3 of Suarez’s 52 career top-10s, Suarez may not contend for the win, but I think he will find his way to a top-10 by the end of the race, if not sneak a top-5.

5. Ryan Preece

Preece hasn’t quite made the dent that I expected. The New Englander ran well in the 500, but his #41 Ford Mustang got wadded up in the lap 182 melee.

A middling run at Fontana the next week was foiled by a restart pileup that led to his second DNF in a row, and like the rest of the Stewart-Haas Racing stable (save for Harvick), Preece was down on speed in Las Vegas, finishing a season-best 23rd.

Three things give me confidence that Preece’s luck might just turn around this week: Kevin Harvick, Chase Briscoe’s 2022 spring win, and his short-track background.

We’ve already discussed Kevin owning the record book at Phoenix, but having him as a teammate to learn from can only be beneficial to an unproven Preece.

A run-of-the-mill spring race last season led to Chase Briscoe logging his first career win, and again, having that setup to build off of will only help the #41.

With all of that said, the most important factor is Preece’s background in modifieds and short-track racing specifically, a division that he has excelled in for the better part of the last decade.

Quiet as it’s kept, Ryan Preece ran well at the Clash until very late in the race. I don’t foresee him using up his stuff with points on the line, points he desperately needs.

Keep your eyes peeled for the SHR 41 as he looks to catapult himself and his team back into relevance.

Dirt’s Favorite: Kevin Harvick

As I said before, he scored two finishes of 6th or better here last season and knows how to get around this place. It also helps that a pair of Fords totally annihilated the competition for most of the day and came home with a 1-2 finish.

Risky Business: Kyle Larson

Larson is a great driver as we all know, but the #5 team has suffered from a little bad luck and just bad preparation. His engine gave him trouble that took him out at Auto Club, and an ill-timed caution combined with a slow stop let his teammate get by him in the pits and win last week.

Larson has something to prove. Unfortunately, he’s a huge risk when he’s got something to prove. He could contend for the win, bin it pushing too hard early, or possibly both!

Dark Horse: Corey Lajoie

(I am not happy about this either, but) Lajoie has gotten off to a hot start in 2023, especially relative to what we’ve come to expect from Spire Motorsports.

His specialty is short-track racing, and if he can keep his cool and drive smooth, I wouldn’t be surprised if he contends for a top-10.