The Wide World of Dirt

The NASCAR Cup Series made its biannual trip to the state of Georgia last week where the field took on their third race at the newly-reconfigured track.

Despite the superspeedway-style pack racing the new layout produces, the field kept it together for most of the race, though some of that can be attributed to conservative driving.

Not that that’s a bad thing at all; it’s certainly the safest way to run those races and saves the car owners some money.

The lone Big One of the day happened right at the front in the final stage when Ross Chastain got leader Kevin Harvick loose, looping the #4 car into the pack.

The crash removed Harvick, Harrison Burton, Chris Buescher, and BJ McLeod while damaging several others. One final caution came out close to 50 to go when leader Aric Almirola lost a tire in turn 4, collecting Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez.

Bucking superspeedway convention, the final 44 laps of the race went without seeing another yellow flag with veterans Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano controlling the field for most of the run to the finish.

Logano dominated much of the day and flexed his muscle one last time in the waning laps, passing Keselowski on the final lap to take his first win of the season.

Another smaller news story during the week were the penalties levied by NASCAR to Denny Hamlin, Kaulig Racing, and Hendrick Motorsports.

Hamlin admitted to losing control of his car on the final restart at Phoenix and purposely taking rival Ross Chastain with him in an effort to pay him back.

After an elongated postrace discussion between the two, they declared a truce going forward, but NASCAR took exception to this good sportsmanship, hitting Hamlin with a 25-point penalty that is now under appeal.

Kaulig and Hendrick had their cars’ hood louvers confiscated by NASCAR officials before practice on Friday in Phoenix, and after review, they determined that the organizations illegally tampered with the parts.

Each of Hendrick’s (active) drivers and Kaulig’s Justin Haley received a hefty 100-point deduction as well as losing 10 playoff points once the postseason starts, but much like Hamlin, both teams are appealing the penalties.

With all that out of the way, let’s move forward to right outside of Austin, Texas where the Cup Series stars tackle the Circuit of the Americas this Sunday on Fox.

1. Ross Chastain

Hey, maybe it is an easy pick to go after the defending winner of the race, but the Melon Man knows how to get around the place.

I had the (dis)pleasure of attending the inaugural race at COTA in 2021, and amidst the deluge, Chastain’s #42 ran up front for most of the race, leading some laps and finishing a strong 4th.

Had teammate Kurt Busch not hydroplaned past the turn 12 gravel trap late in the final stage, Chastain may have had a chance at his first win had the race not been called early due to adverse conditions.

Ross returned to COTA as part of Trackhouse Racing in 2022, and after a spirited duel between himself and AJ Allmendinger in the last sector of the track, Chastain smashed his first victory melon in the Cup Series in Austin.

The guy simply knows how to get around this place no matter the conditions, and with Kimi Raikkonen hopping in the Project 91 ride, that will only make Ross and Daniel even stronger on Sunday.

2. Daniel Suarez

Suarez put his car up front early last year in Texas, showing out for Daniel’s Amigos by earning his first stage win of 2022 in Stage 1.

Unfortunately, that is as good as it got as Suarez lost his power steering midway through Stage 2 after a collision on lap 1 of the stage with Corey Lajoie.

Suarez fought back from two laps down to finish on the lead lap, but after not taking tires on one of the final stops, his race was effectively over.

A year of experience and maturity later, Suarez saw Chastain take the win last year that probably could’ve been his own first win, but with a win already under his belt from last year’s race at Sonoma, Suarez will seek vengeance on Sunday in Texas.

3. Tyler Reddick

The wily Californian nearly pulled off a win here in both of the previous events, landing the inaugural pole in 2021 before a spin in Stage 2 ended his hopes.

In what would be a precursor to his road course prowess throughout the latter half of 2022, Reddick looked like he had Chastain beat on the final restart to take the lead and set sail for victory.

The melon farmer had other plans as he swung back underneath the weed wagon and eventually claimed his first career victory.

Reddick clearly knows how to hold a pretty wheel at COTA, but for one reason or another, he hasn’t held the prettiest wheel.

Toyota in general needs a strong run here, and with Reddick’s knowledge of this track and raw talent, I see no reason why he won’t be a contender this weekend.

4. Alex Bowman

The Showman knows how to show up and do the Texas two-step just about as good as anyone else in the field.

The muck and mire of 2021 didn’t deter Bowman as he led a significant portion of Stage 3 before making his final stop. With the freshest tires in the field at the time the race was called, he could’ve made some noise had the race not been called early.

The #48 team’s trip to Texas’ capital nearly ended in his second victory in four races, nearly dashing by Chastain and Allmendinger as they fought one another.

Unfortunately for the Tucson native, Chastain sent Allmendinger into the penultimate corner where Allmendinger met the side of Bowman’s car before his #16 Kaulig Camaro lay in a steaming heap in the sand trap.

Bowman sustained minimal damage and was able to limp home second, putting himself in the company of Chastain, Reddick, and 2021 winner Chase Elliott as the only drivers to score top-10s in both races at COTA.

With Elliott out of the lineup due to injury, Bowman and interim crew chief Greg Ives look to put on a show this Sunday and get into victory lane this time.

5. Austin Cindric

The youngest driver in Team Penske’s stable continues to learn and grow into his role as a full-time driver.

After locking himself into the Playoffs early last season by winning the Daytona 500, Cindric’s only other top-10 in the season’s first 15 races was at COTA.

Cindric has a fairly diverse and decorated career in road course racing for such a young guy, and that experience led to his breakout in the Xfinity Series.

Now that the talent pool is much deeper and experienced in the Cup Series, Cindric still finds his way towards the front of the field on tracks with right turns, only finishing outside the top-10 once on speed last season.*

Penske teammate Ryan Blaney sat on the pole at COTA last year, and the Fords have shown more speed to start this season, so don’t be surprised if you see the Blue Deuce (still has a blue oval on it) in the lead before the end of the day.

(*Editor’s note: He would’ve finished well at the Roval last year had he not gotten run over on one of the final restarts.)

Dirt’s Favorite: Ross Chastain

You would be mistaken to not choose a Trackhouse car to win, and why wouldn’t it be the only guy in the field on Sunday with two top-5s at the track?

Risky Business: Part-Time Drivers

I do not participate in gambling or games of skill, but I would be wary of choosing any part-time driver as part of a parlay, even someone as great as Jimmie Johnson.

There are too many darts without feathers in the field to trust that they won’t get swept up into somebody else’s mess, but Jenson Button, Raikkonen, and Johnson are all world class drivers of the highest order.

If they can navigate through the stupidity, it is possible for them to come home with a fantastic finish.

Dark Horse: Todd Gilliland

Gilliland was an absolute force at COTA in the Truck Series’ first trip there in 2021, After winning the first stage, Gilliland stormed back through the field to take the lead from Tyler Ankrum with six laps left to win his second career race in the series.

Teammate Michael McDowell is supposedly a road course expert, so having his knowledge base to build off of in addition to his own talent could lead to a great result for the #38 bunch on Sunday.