The Wide World of Dirt

Martinsville along with that heinous aero package and tire do not deserve anymore space on the page than this graph. Congrats Larson.

Much like Martinsville, this race is not worthy of careful and detailed consideration. As a result, here’s my Friday 5, brought to you by calculator.net.

1. AJ Allmendinger

Running his first full-time season in Cup since 2018, AJ has struggled mightily in the first eight races of 2023.

Since his 6th-place effort in the Daytona 500, the Los Gatos native has failed to scrape together a top-15 for Kaulig Racing.

The randomizer claims that will change at Talladega, and I agree. The Kaulig superspeedway program repeatedly thumped the competition in the Xfinity Series.

Clearly, the organization finds ways to be creative on the big tracks. It seemed like in February that the 16 and 31 cars were starting to piece it together in Cup.

It’s Talladega. It could be anybody, but it’s statistically likely to be several drivers. Why not AJ?

2. Harrison Burton

Much like Dinger, the Wood Brothers driver has had considerable trouble getting into contention every week.

Solid showings at Auto Club and Bristol Dirt have been overshadowed by six finishes outside the top-20 in the season’s first quarter.

A young driver still trying to find his place, Harrison Burton exudes confidence at superspeedway tracks, allowing him to run at the front of the pack. The other side of this coin is being up at the front can get you wrecked, and all but one superspeedway race saw the sophomore finish in the top-10.

Wood Brothers’ affiliation with Penske should help get Burton up to speed and up to the front this weekend. If he wants to stamp himself into the history books, now wouldn’t be a bad time to do it.

It’s Talladega. It could be almost anybody. Why not Harrison?

3. Kevin Harvick

This was not me fishing for a result. 4 actually came up in third. Do not accuse this process of bias because, much like NASCAR’s approach to superspeedway racing, I couldn’t be bothered to care.

Kevin hasn’t had the easiest time in Alabama recently; last year’s fall race was a self-made problem, speeding on pit road at the final green flag stop. Not that it would’ve mattered because his car would’ve been disqualified anyway.

Though it’s not a perfect science, Childers and Harvick found speed at Daytona before wrecking with about 15 laps to go.

Happy doesn’t have many days in the sun left on the race track, and I’d imagine he’d want to grab one more big track win before he hangs his helmet at season’s end.

It’s Talladega. It could be anybody, but it’s statistically likely to be several drivers. Why not Happy?

4. Tyler Reddick

Paired with a more competent superspeedway driver as his teammate, Reddick logged a great performance at the Daytona 500 before Kevin Harvick misjudged and hit Reddick, sending his 23XI Camry to the garage.

Reddick held his own against the Fords in the spring Atlanta race this year, nearly seizing the win before settling for a top-5.

The newest driver of the #45 puts himself in position at superspeedways with frequency; it’s just that he finds himself in trouble. Or worse, trouble finds him, such as the 2022 spring Atlanta race where Reddick lost a tire while leading.

With any hope, Tyler can drive more aggressively, having a win in his pocket. Teaming up with Bubba and Denny will be pivotal to his chances.

It’s Talladega. It could be anybody, but it’s statistically likely to be several drivers. Why not Reddick?

5. Ross Chastain

In a startling turn of events, Ross Chastain held his line on the final lap of last year’s spring race. When leader Erik Jones moved up to block other lanes in the tri-oval, Chastain swooped underneath to score his second career win.

His daring move came early in the race in conjunction with Michael McDowell. As the first stage came to a close, the leaders locked their eyes onto the two lapped cars of Chastain and McDowell.

The two drivers staggered the lowest two grooves, effectively block the track going roughly 10-15mph slower than the drivers approaching them. The move kept Chastain on the lead lap in a race where he would recover for his first superspeedway victory.

The Melon Man will look to replicate last year’s feat this weekend. Considering the speed of the Trackhouse cars this season (and the lack of aggressive driving punishments), Chastain should be a safe bet for Talladega, as safe as a superspeedway bet can be.

It’s Talladega. It could be anybody, but it’s statistically likely to be several drivers. Why not Ross?

Secret Special Selection

I won’t do this often because I’ve prided myself on being on top of this the past few months, but for my secret special selection…

6. Ryan Blaney

At a track he’s found success at it in the past, Blaney looks to get his 2023 campaign back on the right track.

This year’s ride has featured a few rises and a couple falls, but a trip to the Yellowhammer State could keep his season on the uptick.

His performance last week at Martinsville showed he still has what it takes as a driver to take a mediocre car to the front when he drove from the back to keep his top-11 streak at Martinsville alive.

Blaney is one of the more respected superspeedway racers on the circuit, carrying the highest career average finish among races held at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta 2022.

Having teammates like Joey Logano and Austin Cindric certainly help your chances to reach the winner’s circle. Luckily for Blaney, he’s made friends throughout the field among many manufacturers. That’ll certainly maximize his chances at victory.

Not the spiciest Secret Special Selection, but like I said before: It’s Talladega. It could be anybody, but it’s statistically likely to be several drivers. Why not Blaney?

(Editor’s note: I will no longer post a recap of last week in the Friday 5 column. With the addition of Monday Marks, it felt redundant.)