The Wide World of Dirt

1. Chase Elliott

It’s gotta come at some point, right?

The two-time Dover winner found speed here even in his first Cup start, running a strong 3rd behind winner Matt Kenseth and future teammate Kyle Larson in spring 2016.

Since his return from a broken tibia, Elliott has finishes of 10th and 12th. Coming to a track he’s shown immense mastery of in the past, Elliott is in the best position yet to secure his first win of 2023.

His teammates are likely to be his strongest competition as Larson won in Delaware’s capital in fall 2019 and led the most laps in 2021 before losing out to teammate Alex Bowman. William Byron shot out of a cannon to start the year, so he could score another win practically any given week.

Much like last year, I expect the winner on Sunday to be piloting Engine Engine No. 9.

2. Chris Buescher

Since joining Roush Fenway (Keselowski) in 2020, Buescher’s average finish at Dover has skyrocketed to an impressive 13.8.

This includes his pole run from last season that resulted in a career-best 8th place at the Monster Mile, his best finish at the track since his 2015 championship season in Xfinity.

There is something about the 1mi concrete oval that speaks to Buescher. Even when RFK lacked speed most of last season, he still managed to clinch his first career pole in Cup.

His win at Bristol last season only further cements his place as a true contender this weekend. It’s the most recent concrete surface the Cup drivers have raced on, and he put on a show to yield the sword in victory lane.

Swinging into this weekend after a 3rd-place finish at Talladega last week, Christopher Buescher might be primed and ready to conquer the Monster Mile once again.

3. Martin Truex Jr

Most would look at Truex’s last two seasons as a disappointment as the 2017 champion has failed to bring home the checkered flag since the 2021 fall Richmond race.

His 2022 campaign showed speed and promise at a variety of tracks, but whether it was pit road miscues, mechanical issues, or something entirely out of his control, Martin’s winless streak ballooned up to its current number: 54.

Heading back to his home track (one of many),Truex returns to where his Cup Series career truly began. Driving the #1 car for DEI, Truex dominated, leading 216 of 400 laps on his way to his first career victory.

MTJ rekindled his success at the track under the direction of crew chief Cole Pearn when Truex piloted his Furniture Row Camry to victory in fall 2016.

In need of a big win to kickstart this season, Truex aims to hook up his car, line the field behind him, and sink his competition this Sunday in the nation’s first state.

4. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Dover is not a track Ricky has run particularly well at in the past, but he’s never been particularly bad there either.

Since entering the Cup Series full-time in 2013, Stenhouse only has five finishes outside of the top-20 in 19 starts, including four top-10s.

Stenhouse saved his best performance at the Monster Mile for 2022. Starting a respectable 15th, the JTG Daugherty driver methodically worked his way through the field, scoring six stage points on his way to an impressive runner-up finish.

Ricky and the #47 team punched their ticket to the playoffs back at Daytona, and if they can build off of their run last year, they can bring a strong Camaro to fight Miles the Monster.

At a track that takes a bite out of most drivers, look for Stenhouse to rise to the occasion.

5. Josh Berry

Welp, this sucks.

For the second time this season, a Hendrick driver is sidelined by injury with Josh Berry keeping the seat warm. This time, Alex Bowman got into a wicked sprint car crash earlier this week, fracturing a vertebrae.

The new pilot of the #48 Ally Camaro has an unbeatable record at Dover in his native Xfinity Series where he followed up a 2nd-place finish in 2021 with a win last season.

It could be all those years of NASCAR Racing 2003 and iRacing really paying off for the late model king as he steps into Bowman’s ride this week, another golden opportunity to establish himself at the Cup level.

Berry already claimed a victory as a substitute in 2021 in the Xfinity Series, so why not Josh?