The Wide World of Dirt

As we approach the Round of 8, it’s time for the Final 4 predictions. JJTurnip and I decided we would mix it up this year and do our Final 4 picks draft style.

The two of us took turns drafting from the pool of eight drivers that were left and then made our arguments on why our four would be the four fighting for a championship this year as well as our championship picks.

Dirt’s First Pick: Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick faced many doubters prior to Darlington about his playoff viability. The 23XI driver failed to make it out of the Round of 16 in his last two seasons with Richard Childress Racing.

Clearly, this is a case of New Team, New Me as the Californian made a statement with his late-race heroics in Kansas, making a last-lap, three-wide pass to advance to the Round of 12.

Reddick stumbled a tad in the second round, planting the #45 Camry into the fence in the closing stages at Texas before a pedestrian run at Talladega ended with a 16th-place finish.

The fourth-year wunderkind solidified his place in the Round of 8 with a sterling performance at the Charlotte Roval where Reddick dominated the stages before ending the day in 6th.

This gives his fans reason to believe the Jordan athlete is a title threat. Two of his strongest tracks on the schedule appear in this round: Las Vegas and Homestead.

Though he didn’t have the strongest run at Vegas in the spring, riding the wall at Homestead proved fruitful for him in the Xfinity Series, claiming two-straight titles with wins in Miami.

Reddick doesn’t traditionally do well at Martinsville, but he stayed up front through the early part of the spring race. His teammate also happens to be strong at that particular track, not to mention his boss who owns five grandfather clocks.

Even if the #45 team fails to get into victory lane this round, they’ve certainly got a chance to point their way to Phoenix.

Jey’s First Pick: Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has been a consistent presence in the top-5 almost weekly since the playoffs began. A valid argument could be made that Hamlin could’ve swept the Round of 16 had he not encountered adversity.

At Darlington, he dominated before a loose wheel cost him the lead, and the following week at Kansas, the #11 looked to have the race in-hand prior to a late yellow that dropped him 2nd to Tyler Reddick won the race.

Of course, the FedEx #11 pulled into winner’s circle at the Bristol cutoff race. A 5th at Texas saw his elite performance continue in spite of a hole on his Camry’s right side.

The 18-year veteran claimed 3rd at Talladega after going a lap down in stage 2 and was in contention to leave the Roval with a playoff point before an being caught in a stack up that ended his day.

If he can keep this momentum up, Denny will no doubt be a lock for the Championship 4 and a clear favorite to break through and get his first title.

Dirt’s Second Pick: Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has been an interesting driver to watch this entire season. The Penske pilot skidded into the season on a long 59-race winless drought that he eventually ended at the World 600.

The drought wouldn’t rear its ugly head through the rest of the season since Blaney’s last-lap crossover on Kevin Harvick on the Talladega Superstretch punched his ticket to the Round of 8.

Considering the 29-year-old has been so inconsistent this season, Blaney might be striking while the iron is hottest in the Hell that is the NASCAR Playoffs.

One place Blaney can always count on for a good result is Las Vegas where 8 of his first 11 starts at the track landed him a top-10. Unfortunately for him, Sin City hasn’t been kind in the NextGen era, relegating the #12 to finishes of 36th, 28th, and 13th.

With a majority of Team Penske’s data and resources going into Blaney’s ride these next three weeks, it is hard to imagine a world where Blaney and his team bring a potato to any of these tracks.

Blaney has ended every Martinsville race since fall 2018 in 11th position or better with six of those being in the top-10.

Blaney may need some help to get to Phoenix, but this just might be the year where the ninth-year veteran makes his own luck instead.

Jey’s Second Pick: William Byron

William Byron has finally had his breakout season in the biggest way.

The driver of the familiar #24 remains a bona fide championship favorite with six wins on the season to this point.

Byron has matched the wins with consistent performances, proving to be the most stable Hendrick car week-in and week-out.

His worst finish of the playoffs thus far was a 15th-place finish at Kansas, and he’s placed in the top-10 at every other track we’ve run at since the Playoffs began.

His most recent win at Texas saw the young driver take a top-4 car and capitalize on other drivers’ mistakes late to take home the checkered flag.

With his 17-point advantage over the cutline, William Byron should be a favorite to make the Championship 4 and compete for a championship in Phoenix.

Dirt’s Third Pick: Kyle Larson

The Elk Grove native sits high above the rest heading into the Round of 8, winning at all three tracks in the last three years: Las Vegas 2021, Homestead 2022, and Martinsville in the spring.

Ever since the Homestead win last season, Larson made it his mission in 2023 to shake all of the proverbial chimps off of his back; he won at Martinsville earlier this year and followed that up with a playoff-opener win in the Southern 500.

The Darlington triumph proved to be particularly special for Larson considering his long history of success at the track that always saw him leave the Lady in Black empty-handed

The Round of 12 got off to a bad start for Larson; he led a majority of the race before wrecking on a late restart. This was made even worse the following week at Talladega when he was involved in a pileup coming to the finish line.

A tiring day at the Roval wore their patience thin, but the #5 team hold a steady wheel and landed a 13th-place result after starting at the back of the field.

Hot off of his IndyCar rookie orientation session, Larson should enter these last few races more energized than ever before knowing what lays ahead.

A chance to enter the Indianapolis 500 as the defending NASCAR champion carries a lot of weight into The Great Race in 2024 as Larson looks to climb aboard a McLaren for the event.

With any luck, Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels look to be as focused as ever before the last four races of 2023, and that’s always a dangerous duo when they’re locked in on one goal.

Jey’s Third Pick: Chris(topher) Buescher

Speaking of breakout seasons, how about the season Chris Buescher has had?

With three wins and career-highs in top-5s and top-10s, Buescher has shown up on the biggest stages this year against the sport’s biggest names.

The #17 Mustang has been the best-performing car from the Ford camp since the summer stretch started.

The consummate underdog from Prosper, TX sits just three points out of the Championship 4 going into the Round of 8, but if he maintains the consistency he showed in the summer, he could be in the mix for the title at Phoenix.

Buescher must convert top-10 runs into top-5s while limiting mistakes, but RFK have proven that the #17 team should be fighting for a championship after Martinsville.

Dirt’s Fourth Pick: Martin Truex Jr.

The 2017 champion has fallen on hard times in the past two months. Truex hasn’t finished inside the top-15 since his 6th-place effort at Watkins Glen on August 20th.

In spite of this putrid performance, this version of the Playoff format continues to expose its flaws to the fan base as the #19 team has limped into the Round of 8.

The veteran driver might be looking at his final shot to win a Cup title, and I expect to see the best version of Joe Gibbs Racing and Truex in these final four events.

Truex scored top-10s at both Las Vegas and Martinsville earlier this year while adding a 6th in his last trip to Homestead late in 2022.

Homestead has also proven to be one of MTJ’s best tracks, especially since 2017 when he netted his first championship with Furniture Row Racing.

Through several trips back to the Championship Round in the years since that first title, Truex and Co. have struggled to garner another, finishing 2nd three different times in the points.

The New Jersey native needs to find the resolve and speed this team exhibited in the summer after scoring victories at Dover, Sonoma, and New Hampshire, a similar track to Phoenix.

The only drivers with more Championship Four appearances than Truex are Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano, none of whom he will face in this penultimate round.

In desperate need of a turnaround, Truex rolls into a round with plenty of strong tracks for himself and the team, so the Round of 8 could be the cure to #19 car’s recent woes.

Jey’s Fourth Pick: Christopher Bell

Bell has been a curious case this year; he has only scored one win in 2023. In contrast, he started the Playoffs lights out in qualifying, sweeping the pole positions for the round of 16.

Finishing top-10 in two of those races and top-5 in the other. Bell’s Round of 12 consisted of one top-5 and two top-15s.

Granted, the #20 team will need to have better results than that to make it to Phoenix, but if they can lock themselves in, they have potential to compete at the tricky 1mi track where he finished 6th in the spring.

Not to mention, Bell’s Camry was one of the fastest cars at New Hampshire earlier this year, which teams say translates quite well to Phoenix.

CBell could be a factor if he can survive this round. His two walk-off wins at the Roval and Martinsville last year prove that he shines brightest in the biggest moments.

Maybe the JGR driver runs it back in western Virginia to punch his ticket to Phoenix.

Dirt’s Championship Pick: Ryan Blaney

Though not my first pick, I have the most faith in Ryan Blaney advancing to the final round on points. The Penske powerhouse is peaking at the exact right time and going to tracks he likes.

Blaney’s teammate, Joey Logano, stole the victory from Ross Chastain last year in the waning laps, effectively punching his ticket to Phoenix three weeks before the race.

Some of his competition is either in a skid or have a character flaw that causes them to choke. Christopher Bell does not have momentum. Chris Buescher, similar story.

Denny Hamlin does nothing better than allowing people (and himself) to get into his head, and this Playoff environment routinely provokes mistakes from the #11 team, holding them back when the money’s on the line.

Truex had a terrible round while his Toyota stablemate Tyler Reddick had a similarly mediocre second round as well.

Ryan Blaney’s only question mark as a racer is the one that’s haunted him from the beginning: Can he do whatever it takes to win?

I believe he will win at Martinsville if not somewhere else earlier in the round. Blaney’s #12 Mustang is carefully navigating its way through these Playoffs, and it’s time for YRB to take the final step to be amongst the elite of the sport.

Jey’s Championship Pick: Denny Hamlin

This one pretty well speaks for itself.

I believe that this is Denny Hamlin’s year. He looks poised to finally break through and get the title that he’s been trying for over 15 years to get.

Hamlin has had the speed and a fast pit crew, so as long as both can limit their mistakes, they are, in this writer’s opinion, the clear favorite going into Phoenix to fight for the championship.

(Cover Photo: NASCAR Creative Design)