The Wide World of Dirt

Hello and welcome 0ne and all to the Motor City where the NTT IndyCar Series faces the streets of Detroit, Michigan for the sixth round of the 2024 championship.

Much of this weekend has been overshadowed due to the previous event — the Indianapolis 500-mile race — where 2023 winner Josef Newgarden saw fit to give the world a sequel to last year’s late-race heroics.

Rain dominated the headlines for a majority of the day as Mother Nature brought an early end to Kyle Larson’s attempt of The Double but didn’t keep him from going the distance around the Brickyard, placing 18th after incurring a speeding penalty.

Roger Penske’s rapid Chevys matched up well with Arrow McLaren’s top stars in Alexander Rossi and Pato O’Ward, both teams occupying the top-10 for large portions of the race with pole sitter Scott McLaughlin leading a race-high 66 laps.

Amid rumors of the Japanese engine supplier leaving America’s premier open-wheel series, Honda failed to show up, losing nine cars from wrecks and mechanical woes.

Sunday’s race came down to a pair of familiar foes in Josef Newgarden and Pato O’Ward, dueling all out for the final run to the finish.

With the white flag in sight, the magnificent Mexican driver sailed by Newgarden before diving into turn 1, but Newgarden was far from done.

Penske’s #2 Shell Chevy roared off of turn 2 while O’Ward’s #5 car wiggled around the track like a worm, struggling to break the tow down the backstretch.

The talented Tennessean sent his car around the outside of O’Ward in turn 3 on the final lap, holding on to become the first driver to go back-to-back in the Greatest Spectacle in Racing since Helio Castroneves in 2001 & 2002.

Painful scenes from St. Petersburg of a win that wasn’t got erased quickly as Newgarden cleared a fence post-race and celebrated with the fans in attendance on the front straight just like he did last year.

Josef’s win propels the Tasty 2s up to 7th in the driver’s standings and gives his team the necessary shot in the arm they need to contend for the title.

Since we’ve debriefed from last week, let’s talk about the Detroit GP.

Like Long Beach, the origins of the Detroit street circuit lay in Formula 1 where the series ran the Renaissance Center configuration from 1982-1988.

CART assumed the billing of the event for the next three years before transitioning the street race to Belle Isle State Park where the American open-wheel raced at in Michigan for much of the past three decades.

That is, until IndyCar chose to revive the Renaissance Center circuit for 2023 where Alex Palou snagged the first victory on the revamped downtown layout.

Exiting turn 9 brings the field onto Franklin St to the start-finish line before narrowing into the left-hand turn 1 onto Rivard St briefly until cranking the wheel to the left yet again for turn 2.

A long, arduous journey down Jefferson Ave promotes lots of passing opportunities with space for Push 2 Pass to make a real difference.

Turn 3 features two tight apexes, swinging hard to the left through the second apex and onto a short chute guiding drivers to the right-hander turn 4.

Smooth driving down Bates St flings cars through a sharp left preceding the left-right chicane where drivers zoom past the Renaissance Center and into turn 8.

Emerging from the left and past the pit entry, drivers hastily switch over to the right for turn 9 to complete a lap around the Detroit street course.

With all of that settled, let’s head on over to the weather for race day along with some fast facts.

The Weather & Fast Facts

The past decade saw four straight years of rain on the first Sunday of June, but the last time it affected a Detroit race was all the way back in 2018.

With that said, let me be abundantly clear: that is about to change.

Though moisture isn’t due to hit the track while the race is ongoing, IndyCar’s leadership will need to remain diligent since thunderstorms are reported to return to the area around 3pm local time.

Luckily, the race is set for Noon Eastern today on USA and Peacock with an average race distance for this event falling close to 1 hour and 41 minutes. The race distance is 100 laps around the 1.645-mile street circuit.

Most of the statistics I draw from focus on the Belle Isle races, so I debated including them and have now decided against it as the tracks do not resemble each other and therefore have no bearing on what we will see in the race downtown.

To provide hope that this year’s race will be competitive, last year’s race on the new layout saw 142 passes for position, just 10 off of the highest mark set at Belle Isle.

Now, it is time to hash it out with the oddsmakers over at DraftKings to see with whom the betting professionals are investing their confidence.

The Odds

Claiming the pole and the top spot on the list of favorites is Colton Herta (+250). The second-generation driver set a fast time of 1:00:5475 and put himself in great position to snag his first win since 2022 at the Indy road course.

Herta has never been particularly great at either the Belle Isle circuit or at last year’s layout, notching a career-best 4th in 2021. Needing a win sooner rather than later, look for Herta to roll through Detroit Rock City today.

Plugging into the second spot on the grid and on the favorites list is Chip Ganassi’s Alex Palou (+300). The defending winner of this event snared a victory at the IMS road course in May before backing it up with a fifth-place effort in the Indy 500.

The two-time champion out of Spain gears up for another weekend of defending his seemingly endless points lead as he seems poised to claim his third title in four seasons, and another win in the Motor City puts him one step closer to that goal.

Finally, there’s last week’s winner Josef Newgarden (+400). Taking home the first leg of the 2019 Belle Isle doubleheader, the 33-year-old Penske driver seeks another win to re-establish himself as a true title contender after the St. Pete penalties.

A reunion with chief strategist Tim Cindric should give this team an extra shred of momentum this weekend, and rolling off third today, the duo have a chance to score major points and bring home the hardware, hopefully able to keep both this time.

Writer’s Pick

Last week’s picks did pretty alright if I do say so myself. Rinus VeeKay ended the Indy 500 in ninth while Pato O’Ward came agonizingly close to conquering the Brickyard.

This week, I will be siding with Andretti Autosport’s Kyle Kirkwood (+1000). The Californian got into a shouting match with the diminutive but dangerous Santino Ferrucci over space given during Saturday’s morning sessions.

Having a spark lit underneath him only helps Kirkwood tackle these street courses, especially when the two-time race winner only owns street race victories.

The 25-year-old aims to be the first Andretti driver to log a win this year, and while Kirkwood needs to rocket by teammate Colton Herta to get to the front, I believe the #27 car will sit P1 at the end of the race.

(Top Photo Credit: Darron Cummings/AP Photo)